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Archive for February, 2009

Sanjay moves to Canada

Thousands of Sanjays move to Toronto every year certified to their teeth but eventually ending up working for government or owning a crappy franchise. Frankly, I am fed up with colonials colonizing colonies! Human capital is being considered by policy makers as something akin to Foreign Direct Investment, except that in Sanjay’s case he is begging and not being begged.

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Keshtuu..qe kur me hoqen qafe prej punes ne Nentor kam qene duke dredh zinxhirin e duke bere miq njerez qe mund te me punesojne. Cuditerish, peshku me i madh me del prej nje kamarierie bjonde me te cilen dal ndonjehere per sevap. Motra i eshte futur me koke gjetjes te nje sugar-daddy dhe me prezanton me gjahun me te fundit: nje private equity investor me nje prejardhje shume aristokratike. All Ivy League e me the te thashe. Me kujtoi nje shokun tim Shqiptar qe i eshte futur atij kallepi po ne industrine e ‘private equity’. Ishin aq te ngjashem sa edhe pulovren e kishin njesoj. Keshtu qe kamarjerja (ja u thashe qe eshte platinum blonde?) me rregullon nje darke me te.

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Ka kohe qe behet shume zhurme mbi ndikimin qe mund te kete kriza ekonomike dhe bankare e Evropes Qendrore mbi Shqiperine. Dyshimi im vazhdon te jete qe nje pjese e depozitave te Shqiptareve mund te kete shkuar per te financuar kreditimin ne vende si Letonia apo Hungaria (kredi te bera ne CHF ne shumicen e rasteve).

Ne nje kohe qe ne Shqiperi vetem me pak se gjysma e depozitave ‘vihen ne pune’ nga bankieret, ky grafik tregon se pothuaj kudo tjeter te gjitha depozitat jane leshuar si kredi (ne mos me teper). A thua qe bankieret  ne Shqiperi te jene te nje soji tjeter? S’besoj..

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* IMF’s Growing Role In Emerging Europe

o Financial crisis has hit Emerging Europe hard and several of the region’s fast-growing emerging economies have already turned to the IMF and EU for financial assistance o In recent months, IMF has committed roughly $48 billion to a variety of battered emerging economies, including Belarus, Latvia, Pakistan, Iceland, Ukraine, Hungary and Serbia

o Erik Berglof, EBRD’s chief economist (via Telegraph): Region may need €400bn in help to cover loans and prop up the credit system

o Evans-Pritchard: IMF is fast exhausting its own $200bn reserve. We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money, using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights o Economist: Fund should have about $300bn available (which includes a $100bn injection from Japan, announced in Feb-09)

Which CEE Countries Could Be Next Up For IMF Help?

o Romania :Prime minister says that his government will decide in the next two weeks whether it will seek money from the IMF

o National Bank of Romania Governor Isarescu said funds could help protect fx reserves, which stood at €26.2 billion ($33 bn) at end of Dec-08; analysts put Romania’s external financing needs at €30-40 billion ($38-50 bn) in 2009

o See related spotlight issue: Romania Appears To Be Losing Its Mojo: Crisis Ahead?

o Turkey

Turkey has been in negotiations over the terms of a possible loan with the fund o See related spotlight issue: Anchor On The Way? Turkey Under Pressure To Reach A Deal With The IMF

o Estonia and Lithuania

Estonia and Lithuania could be headed down the same path as Latvia, which recently turned to the IMF for help o While Estonia is least vulnerable because it has big buffers, both economies are suffering from massive imbalances and may face severe economic contractions of 5% of more in 2009 See related spotlight issue: Baltic States: Hard Landings InEffect, But Are They Facing Crises?

o PolandFeb 7: IMF is reportedly holding talks with Poland, central Europe’s largest economy, on a possible loan to fend off contagion from the global financial crisis; the loan would be a precautionary measure (Hugh) o See related spotlight issue: Risks Rising In Poland

o CroatiaThe large external debt (at around 90% of GDP), C/A deficit (around 10% of GDP), and short-term financing needs of the government and corporate sector are key challenges given the tighter global financing conditions. Analysts warn that the government’s reluctance to introduce spending cuts make it highly likely the country will have to ask IMF for the help (via Reuters)

o See related spotlight issues: Which Eastern European Economies Are Most Vulnerable To Global Turmoil? Why? and Croatia Economic Outlook: Heading For Recession) Recent Rescue Packages

o Hungary In Oct-08, IMF announced a €12.5bn ($15.7bn) agreement with Hungary on a broad economic rescue package under a 17-month stand-by arrangement o See related spotlight issue: Pressu re On Hungary: IMF Deal Helps, But Still A Long Road Ahead

o Latvia In Dec-08, IMF announced plans to lend about €1.7 billion ($2.4 bn) to support Latvia’s plan for stabilizing the economy

o Program announced by Latvia’s government includes measures to stabilize the financial sector and restore depositor confidence. It will also require a substantial fiscal tightening: government is aiming for a headline fiscal deficit of less than 5% of GDP in 2009 (compared with a deficit of 12% of GDP if no new measures were taken) as a means to reduce financing needs and improve competitiveness

o See related spotlight issue: Latvia: Hard Landing In Effect, Can It Meet Conditions Of Its IMF Rescue Package? o Controversially, Latvia was allowed to maintain its peg to the euro under the terms of the IMF agreement (See related spotlight issue: Should The IMF Have Required Devaluation In Latvia?)

o Serbia As a precautionary measure, the country reached a $520m standby agreement with the IMF in Nov 2008. In Feb, Serbian authorities sought an additional loan to cover a widening budget deficit and back the dinar currency. It is reported that the size of the new programme will likely be around 1b euros ($1.3b)

o IMF conditions: The 2009 budget deficit limited to 1.75% of GDP, lowering of CPI to 8% in 2009 and the country can not contract or guarantee new short-term external debt (See: Letter of Intent and related spotlight issue – Serbia Economic Outlook: Additional IMF Loan Sought to Cover Widening Budget Deficit)

o Ukraine IMF agreed to grant a US$16.5 bn, 24-month standby facility to Ukraine in Nov-08. Facility, equivalent to 800% of Ukraine’s IMF quota, is aimed at improving financial sector liquidity and solvency problems by smoothing the adjustment to large external shocks and reducing inflation

o Ukraine received first tranche of $4.5bn in Nov-08. However, disagreement between IMF and government regarding the budget deficit has made terms of the next tranche uncertain

o See related spotlight issue: IMF May Suspend Loan Payments to Ukraine: Ukraine Looks To Global Powers Feb 19, 2009 Associated Readings (11 Articles) AnalysisIMF Survey MagazineInterview with Marek BelkaJan 14, 2009

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EUOBSERVER/BRUSSELS- Austria, qe eshte vendi ku ndodhen bankat me ekspozimin me te madh ndaj Europes lindore, I ben thirrje BE-se qe te ofroje nje pakete-shpetimi prej 150 miliarde eurosh per lindjen dhe po paralajmeron per nje kolaps bankar ne gjithe rajonin, gje qe mund te shuaje sistemin bankar te vendit te vogel Alpin.

Bankat europiane kane angazhuar nje capital prej 1.1 trilion eurosh ne rajon, por institucionet financiare vieneze jane vecanerisht te ekspozuara pasi kane dhene borxh 220 miliarde euro- equivalinti I tre cerekut te PBB te Austrise- para keto qe Vienezen druajn se borxhlijte mund te mos jene ne gjendje t’jau kthejne.

Per te parandaluar nje krize bankare ne Austri- vend I cili deri tani ishte prekur vetem perciptazi nga kriza- Vienna kerkon qe BE-u te rrise asistencen per bilancin e pagesave te Europes lindore nga 25 miliarde euro ne 100 miliarde euro. Austria gjithashtu ben thirrje per 50 milarde euro shtese qe do te mund ti jepet vendeve jashte BE-ut si vendet Balkanike dhe Ukraina. Parate do te vijne nga European Investment Bank, dhe Banka Qendrore Europiane, dhe nga EU Cohesion Fund Nje levizje e tille do te ndihmonte vendet lindore qe te konfiguronin paketat e shpetimit per bankat e tyre, gje qe deri tani nuk kane patur para per ta bere.

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From the Rubini Global Economics Monitor

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